Monday Quickie : Bad Teams Lose Games

A lot of them in a lot of ways.  Even if the Nats are showing some top level competence - Abrams is probably good! Winker could be a steal! - they are still very shallow and if you start to need the 2nd level or god forbid the 3rd level of the team to perform you are asking for trouble.

Still a win in LA will make it a successful road trip and a sweep by the Dodgers is basically expected and doesn't constitute a disappointment. That's not much of a hurdle.  

Gore did look good against the A's, so did Williams, and Jake Irvin.  Of course the key to that is the A's themselves.  They have the 2nd worst offense in baseball. Around the same as the Mariners who are both well behind the 4th worst offense in baseball. What did we learn? These guys can really beat the guys they should. So if the Nats played 150 games against the White Sox, A's and Mariners they'd really clean up. But they don't. We'll check on the pitchers really at the end of the month.

Well I'll make an exception in the meantime for MY BOY Hunter Harvey has a FIP of 0.11.  0.11! 

The NL East is interesting. The Braves got slammed by SP injuries so aren't a powerhouse and I think the Mets and Phillies can both make noise. That's not good for the Nats and I think the Nats remain clearly 4th. But the Marlins are both not good and not trying and I think that combination can really crush a team. The Nats may have a chance to just put them in the rear view soon with a 4 game set.

Early 10% Season League Notes  

AL East - Orioles are probably the class. The Yankees, who are in first, are good, but probably worse than Baltimore so they have to hold out hope they can keep getting lucky and hold them off. (which is what the O's did to the Rays last year). Only 90% of the year to go! Boston might be good but also Toronto and the Rays may not? 

AL Central - Royals are coming together and hopefully will rise about the mediocre slap fight that the Central has been recently. The White Sox are as trash as they seem

AL West - Sorry the Astros probably aren't bad. I mean they do have a 4/5 SP problem but otherwise are fine and should rise back up. Everyone else is who you'd imagine they'd be

NL Central - It's fun the Reds and Pirates are both pretty good now. Brewers are still probably the best. Cubs are close enough to consider as well. Could be a long season for the Cardinals and they aren't even that bad. 

NL West -  Is this the season the Padres actually win the games and not just produce the stats? Maybe. But Dodgers are still the best. Giants have an uphill climb and the Rockies are nothing.

Baseball!

Free James Wood!

James Wood had four hits yesterday including his first homer, and oh yes, his second homer of the season. He's currently hitting .441 / .558 / .794 in AAA and while that would obviously cool down given time, it's also obvious he can handle AAA pitching and is ready for the majors

Exhibit 1 is his stats.  Along with the above, in 2023 after some struggles in July and August, hit .353 / .421 / .569 in September. 

Exhibit 2 is his Ks.  The only real question about Wood is did he strike out too much. Not that it looked like that would keep him from being a good play but it could limit his ceiling in the majors.  While last year he K'd 20 times in 57 PA (like 35%) in that September, right now he's at 7 in 43 PA (like 18%).  The last thing you could use to hold him back has been overcome. 

Exhibit 3 is his Spring Training. If you need to use it in a tie-breaker, not sure which way to go fashion (the only way to use these stats) he literally led all players in OPS in Spring. 

There's nothing more to say. He's ready. 

I've always been highest on Wood. This isn't some crazy prescience. He did crazy good at extremely young ages for his level. I have my doubts on whether he will be so good he can just replace Soto (Soto at 21 1/2 put up a .351 / .490! / .695 line in the pandemic season) but as I've noted before "just regular star" is fine.  Wood doesn't need to be 1st ballot HoF potential. 

There is nothing for Wood to gain being in the minors.  If he's a star this team... well it still can't compete for a playoff spot but it could start to plan around yes this guy is a star. 

Make the move Nats.

A solid start

2-0 and feeling good. It might be that the Giants are bad. We are still feeling these things out. And definitely San Fran going 1-16 with RISP over the first two games is unsustainable, but as we always say here - you don't have to give the wins back.  Take them and run. 

As constituted the Nats still aren't playoff contenders but with the Marlins looking like maybe the worst team in baseball all it would take is the Phillies or Mets to disappoint (and both are so far) for the Nats to get a nice 4+ win boost just for being in the right division at the right time. Have some kids get hot and call them up early and you know, 70+ wins may not be crazy. 

Of course the Nats suffered their first pitching injury - Josiah Gray taking some time off to deal with forearm strain (but likely not extended time out).  Joan Adon comes up in his place and while Joan has never been good (and he wasn't really last night but the Giants as noted couldn't get the big hits) he can't be worse than what Gray was showing in his first two starts. So the injury isn't that significant right now but it leads to the necessity of digging throuugh their shallow starting pool in the minors earlier than they would have liked. A Gore injury or Trevor Williams going back to being NOT the hardest pitcher in the majors to turn balls-in-play into hits against and things could get grim on the mound.

Monday Quickie - 9 games in

9 games is still nothing.  It's not even the "way too early 1/10th of the season" talk I like to do. It's a stretch and we all know teams go 8-2 and 2-8 over these all the time. So there isn't too much to glean about it. It's the second stretch that starts making a team what they could be.The Nats are 3-6. Where will they be after a West Coast swing that takes them to the middling Giants, terrible A's and terrific Dodgers? 6-12 is probably expected for a worse than average team. Lower and you start to worry. Higher and it's a pleasant surprise.  Yes 7-11 is a pleasant surprise.  4-5 on a nine game road swing is pretty good!

I liked Gore's outing but I really want to see him dominate the As next before I think about him taking a step forward. 

Anything so far warrant your first side-eye glances at being "huh, is something going on here?" 

 NO! 

Well not totally "No" but be cautious because it's just 10 games and anyone can get hot for 10 games.  You don't care too much about the stats in the good/bad sense but maybe in the OMG!/OMG! or if they are showing you something unexpected. Anything like that? 

• Two homers for CJ Abrams is interesting.  If he can be a 25+ homer guy that's a big thing with his other general skills. 
• Eddie Rosario's 35% K rate and 0 walks is concerning in as much as you care about Eddie Rosario.
• Generally 2 starts is too soon to worry about pitchers but Gray has been so off and not because of bad luck that I'll definitely be watching his next start closely. 
• I liked the Floro/Barnes gambits. Barnes hasn't been good so far, but Floro looks like his pre-2023 self. A little wild but rein that in and you probably have a top notch arm to go along with Harvey who had one bad outing but has been near perfect (3.2 IP 7Ks 0BB 1 hit) since. I think Finnegan is fine too but hard to shake his one game-killing showing. 

On to the West Coast and some late night baseball. 

How long before you worry about Gray?

Josiah Gray has another bad outing. It's only two and 8 innings total but everything but the Ks are off.  He's shown bad control, been incredibly hittable and given up homers. This rotation in 2024 can't sustain a pitcher like this, and more importantly their plans for the future cannot either. 

This pitching is reminiscent of his August from last year (8.84 ERA). If his periods of greatness were unhittable then you might accept it but he's merely ok when on and terrible when off. The combination is a 5th starter at best. 

It's pretty fascinating because he was one of the Dodgers top prospects, rising to #2 in a deep organization list. In 2019 he dominated having a very high strikeout rate with control, while being hard to hit and hard to homer off of. Simply put he did everything right. In 2021 he looked in AAA that he hadn't lost anything doing almost the same over 4 appearances, with only the homer issue rearing it's head. It didn't seem like he would be terrible in the majors, but he has been.

The fancy stats say for the most part he pitched the same way in 2021 and 2022  and there was a consitency in his stats over those two years. K-rate was good, hit-rate fine, but control and homers out of whack. He changed up in 2023, swapping in a cutter for his change and mixing up his pitches more. That brought the homers under control but the K-rate dropped and the walk rate went up. Essentially he became a luck pitcher - guys got on base and got hits but if they didn't do it in the right order he could do allright. In the first half they didn't, in the second half they did. He's added back in a change this year to try to improve but results have been poor.

The strikeout rate suggest his stuff is still there so what is going on? Is he simply an AAAA pitcher? Did the Nats, not known for developing pitchers, mess him up? Is he hurt? 

I'm leaning toward something like AAAA. I think that the early walk rates in the majors are the product of trying to avoid home runs. One doesn't usually suddenly lose command of the strike zone, and his early games in 2021 had far fewer walks.  So I think naturally he could probably keep walks and hits down and strike out a bunch... while giving up the most homers in the majors.  I think that's Gray's natural position. Is that usable? I don't know, we've never tried it.  

His fastball is not good. That's a tough truth to swallow but it is the truth. It just isn't, but it was necessary to set up effective sliders and curves.  But adding in a middling cutter at a speed closer to the sliders and curves, he's hurt that balance. 

Trying to make him a new pitcher doesn't seem to be working with only a lucky start to 2023 making people think otherwise. He isn't a better pitcher when avoiding homers with pitch mixing, because he can't control all those pitches well. He puts too many men on and can't finish others off. So let him go back to who he was.  Let him throw and give up 45 homers and see if that puts him at a 4.50 ERA or a 6.00 ERA so you can decide what to do. You have to get him comfortable with that idea though. You are going to give up homers. That's fine as long as you aren't walking guys. It may be hard. But I'm thinking that's the best path forward for him

Monday Quickie - almost better than expected... but not

 The Nats played a competitive series with the Reds over Opening Day weekend and were only denies a series win by an epic bullpen meltdown. Finnegan was hit hard the entire inning but lucked into the first couple hard hit balls being at Nats. The next one, after a fierce battle, was not and the last two were decidedly not. The bullpen was supposed to be... well not a weakness, so this isn't a great showing but remember when we talk all about this stuff that it is ALL small sample size.  Three games. They matter but things can swing from this VERY easily. Many things will. 

What did we see that we can focus on? 

A team that's going to run more. They stole 7 bases, 3 by Abrams, 2 by Thomas, and 1 by Lipscomb. Youth generally has a speed advantage and while they do have some slow players their prospects that hit and even a guy like Gallo aren't lumbering oafs. This is good and as long as they pick and choose when to run correctly, it'll make the team better and more fun to watch, to boot. 

Joey Gallo still looks lost. It was a terrible Spring and three games in you have to at least start to worry about a guy who is 0-12 with 6 Ks. They don't need Gallo but it'll force some decisions if he struggles like this for a while. The rest of the guys, some hot, some not, let's give it another series before noting.

Senzel hurt makes the Nats move on Lipscomb early so we'll get his evaluation done right now. Good.  You guys know I don't like Senzel and I don't have any idea why he was signed or starting. I think this only makes the Nats better even if Lipscomb is below average.   

The starting pitching is likely the issue we thought it would be.  Gray looked bad. Corbin looked bad.  Irvin was merely below average and that was the best. It's a tough start but unsurprising. They needed another arm and chose not to get one. Here the Nats are. 

We have no idea what to think so far. Who are the Nats? Who are the Reds? How representative were these games? Early indications are they are who we thought they are but maybe a bit more fun getting to their 100 loss season. The Pirates series will tell us a bit more. 

I'm most intrigued by Gallo. If he struggles the move is Joey to first, then... one of the OFs to DH and then... one of the kids up early?  Wood has started in AAA hot  4 for 10 with a double and 5(!) walks.  Just saying. 

Opening Day - Season Projection

 LET'S GOOOOOoooooooh oh no. 

Like last year, first we will start with the adjusted standings The Nats here, trying to strip all sorts of luck and randomness out of their record, sat at about a 63 win team when 2023 ended. 

Offensively they've switched on Dom Smith for Joey Gallo, Jeimer Candelario for Nick Senzel, and whoever in LF for Jesse Winker/Eddie Rosario. That's a slight upgrade, say 0.5 WAR, a big downgrade, maybe -3 WAR and a push.  A push? Yeah Stone Garrett was good.  Alex Call's defense was good. But ok, given there's a better chance in my mind for Rosario/Winker to land on something good than flitter around with a bunch of bad... I'll give you another 0.5 WAR.  So that's a -2.0 WAR in changes. 

What about returning players? Looking at them - Joey Meneses at DH, Keibert Ruiz at C, Luis Garcia Jr at 2B, CJ Abrams at SS, Lance Thomas in RF and Victor Robles in CF... well the good news is age wise and performance in 2023 wise there's not much chance for a big decrease. These are guys in there general "baseball prime" doing what they are expect them to. But there is also not much chance for a breakout either. That generally falls to CJ Abrams (young, talented and showed a couple flashes last year) and Victor Robles (injured). I could see something working here so I'll give a 1.0 WAR here as well. 

That's an offense that remains a bad offense, but not an "avert your eyes" one.  A -1.0 WAR overall change

The starting pitching has not changed outside of an extra half-season (maybe) for Jake Irvin. This is hard to call.  Gray and Gore still maintain an age and talent level that improvement could happen but they are slipping out of the age frame that it normally would.  Corbin and Williams should get worse with age but can they? I am going to be conservative and drop the output here by 0.5 WAR, but the variance is high. They could end up by far the worst in baseball or merely bad. 

The relievers we discussed the other day - a bunch of guys who are ok doing what they do - with a decent chance of a good finish. Given that I like the chances on Barnes and Floro and think Harvey could be special... I just think there is more upside than downside here.  Finnegan or Rainey are good and one of those chances hit... I'll give it a 0.5 WAR to balance out the SP. 

So same team? 62ish win?  I'm not so sure. In terms of defense, which was factored in, the Nats should be much worse and they weren't all that good last year. They were carried by Jeimer and their odd commitment to Alex Call and both those guys are effectively gone.  Defense stacks in that if you replace a good SS with a bad SS well maybe 3B and 2B can compensate some, but if you replace a good SS with a bad SS and a good 1B with a bad 1B well now 2B is over covering that guy and 3B can't completely cover for the SS.  You get the point. The sum is greater than it's parts. So I am selling the Nats a bit on the effect of this bad defense and cutting them another 2 WAR/wins. 

Baserunning? Probably same. 

The big question then is what about the kids? And to that I say... we can't do anything here about that.  It's very likely that Wood, Lipscomb, Cavalli, Henry, and Hassel see time this year.  It's probable that Crews, House, Herz,  Rutledge join them.  But it's hard enough to figure if they are going to well or poorly in their first real trial, let alone figure if they are going to get 5 months of play or 5 weeks. Though they could make a big difference, we just can't factor them in just yet. 

The schedule makes a slight difference but while the Phillies and Mets might improve are the Braves going to get to 104 wins again? Are the never try Marlins going to clear .500? I won't adjust for this.

That leaves the Nats at 60-102 for my projection. A fight to avoid the dread 5X win season which just looks and feels worse than 60 wins. I think if they just went with what they have on board they'd likely go under, with injuries and late season trades taking away some talent. But the kids man, the kids!  Such a wild card. And that keeps me from fully going into that. I believe in James Wood. I believe Lipscomb/House can't be worse than Senzel. I believe Cavalli/Henry can't be worse than Williams. The kids cannot make this team a winner, but they can make the season one. Just, can you keep interest until they get here?